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Theory of Change and a Results Chain - what is the difference?

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Theory of Change and results chain frameworks

Theory of Change (ToC) and results chains are both used in project and programme planning and evaluations, but they have distinct characteristics. At IMA we explore both these frameworks within our training. We have had many participants ask about the differences between the two, and when they are best used during project and programme cycles.

What are the key components of Theory of Change?

A Theory of Change outlines how a specific intervention or programme will make a change happen. It includes the assumptions and contextual factors that influence the steps towards change. It helps to explore causal pathways, detailing the necessary conditions and steps required to achieve long-term goals. Running a Theory of Change workshop helps a team and their partners and stakeholders think about external factors that influence change processes.

Most Theory of Change frameworks typically include:

  • Long-term goals: what the programme ultimately aims to achieve
  • Outcomes: the intermediate changes that need to occur to reach the long-term goals
  • Activities: the specific actions or interventions that an organisation can implement
  • Assumptions: the beliefs about the conditions necessary for change to take place

This image shows a group of IMA MEAL participants, in Brighton, June 2024, discussing indicators that are used in monitoring and evaluation. We will soon be offering a new short course on indicators.

What are the key components of a results chain?

A results chain is a simpler visual representation that connects activities to immediate, intermediate, and long-term results. It highlights the linear relationship between inputs, outputs, outcomes, and impacts, making it easier to track progress.

Result chains include:

  • Inputs: resources invested (e.g., funding, staff)
  • Activities: what the programme or project does (e.g., workshops, training)
  • Outputs: the direct products of activities (e.g., number of participants trained)
  • Outcomes: changes resulting from outputs, often divided into short-term and long-term
  • Impact: the broader, long-term effects of the programme on the community or environment

So what are the key differences?

  • Complexity: Theory of Change is more comprehensive and complex, integrating assumptions and external influences, while the results chain is more straightforward and focuses primarily on the direct relationship between inputs, outputs, outcomes, and impacts
  • Purpose: Theory of Change is useful for understanding and communicating the rationale behind a programme, whereas a well-defined and logical results chain forms the first step in developing a logframe (logical framework) for monitoring and evaluation and tracking progress towards specific goals
  • Level of Detail: Theory of Change provides a deeper analysis of the context and underlying mechanisms, while the results chain offers a more linear view to simplify tracking progress.

For the purposes of monitoring and evaluation, we need a more simplified representation of the Theory of Change, which is where results chains and logframes become really useful. However, it is still important we explore all the factors influencing change, the stakeholders, our assumptions about change etc. While both of these tools are valuable for project and programme planning, they serve different roles in understanding and conveying how interventions lead to change.

Please view this video to see a webinar extract from our online MEAL training course.

IMA services

IMA International provides training through open courses, tailored training, training of trainers, as well as consultancy for organisational change, coaching and mentoring. This builds capacity in international development programmes and humanitarian action globally. We constantly draw on our 40 years of experience working with the public and private sector, UN Agencies, NGOs, non-profits and many others. Our aim is to help organisations enhance their work, by supporting collaboration within organisations and with their stakeholders, to work more efficiently towards their vision.

Our core values are to be Innovative, Inclusive and to Inspire Change.  We pride ourselves in our engaging, creative, supportive, and participatory training approaches. We are well-experienced in designing and facilitating training sessions and workshops to support capacity building. Always ensuring engaging and participatory knowledge-sharing and learning is encouraged, to identify important themes and develop future learnings.

Future learning opportunities

If you are interested in learning more about Theory of Change we have an online training course running from the 9th of December 2024 until the 7th of February 2025. As part of this training you will receive access to an on-line learning platform and live webinars throughout the course. Following the course you will be offered individual mentoring sessions to enable you to reflect on your learning and how you can implement this learning into practice to see effective behaviour change. Please click here to look at the training in more detail.

If you are interested in understanding more about a results chain and how this can be implemented into your project planning you could join all or part of our training programme in Bangkok this year running from the 11th November to the 22nd November 2024. Following the course you will be offered individual mentoring sessions to enable you to reflect on your learning and how you can implement this learning into practice to see effective behaviour change. Please click here to look at the training in more detail.

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